During these visits, it is likely that we will hear the same viewpoint being disseminated by the Kremlin and its supporters: Russia is an anti-imperialist force and the saviour in a battle against “exploitative” Western colonialists.
This narrative has long been used by the Kremlin and its allies to promote support abroad in areas where the West has historically held dominance. But, coupled with the increasing physical presence in the region, for many it is becoming overly apparent that Russia is making a concerted, bilateral push on the continent.
Beyond Lavrov’s presence, one of the key protagonists embodying this growing presence in the Global South in recent years has been Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was revealed in this Financial Times investigation to be using prominent legal firms around the world to try to keep Western governments at bay. Key to Prigozhin’s activities is the paramilitary outfit, known as the Wagner Group, which has waged war in the Middle East and Africa as an unofficial foreign policy tool of the Kremlin for a number of years — even though Prigozhin spent years denying the group’s very existence.
The concerning thing, however, is that the effects of Russia and Wagner’s activities in Africa are very real. Burkina Faso ordered the eviction of French troops from the country. It came after those forces, along with their British allies, withdrew from neighbouring Mali last year. In Mali, they were soon replaced by Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries, and there have been many reports that Burkina Faso will do the same in the coming months.
But it’s not just an uptick in hard power plays that the West needs to contend with.
Another major strand to Moscow’s increasing sphere of influence in places like Africa is the deployment of softer, but still impactful, “hybrid” warfare tools, including propaganda, deception and other non-military tactics.
This came into sharp focus earlier this month as our client Logically uncovered a large social network – Russosphere – which promotes anti-Western and pro-Kremlin ideas, with the aim of helping Russia expand its influence at the expense of France in some of its former colonies in Africa. The discovery of the network may shock some, but against the context of Wagner’s growing presence in Africa and Russia’s broader efforts to win over the Global South, the discovery of Russophere is just adding to this network of influence operations.